To determine the odds I weigh each player at each position against the rest of the players at that position.  For example, Pettersson, McDavid, Hischier and Rossi are all compared against the rest of the league at that position, and the greater the difference, the greater the odds start to separate from one another.  These are weighted by line with 40% from the first line and 23% from the 3rd line.  This is based on TOI expected from that position.  A few seasons ago I stopped ranking 4th line and started taking the best available player at that position for a 6.7% weight for that position, because if someone gets hurt, you call up that 79 rated 20 year old for a few games.

This gives each team a number toward the final odds, and I scale each position to be relative to 20% of the outcome with a variable that changes.  Simply put, if goaltending was getting worse and worse, the variable would change so it still counted toward 20% of the total.  The greater the disparity between the top and bottom goalie gives a greater disparity in odds.  If I traded Jonathan my goalie, his odds would go from 9.7 to 1, to 8.1 to 1 because his goaltending improved dramatically while the average at that position stayed the same, jumping him to the 4th worst to the 4th best odds to win in the cup.